The impact of data assimilation into the meteorological WRF model on birch pollen modelling

Abstrakt

We analyse the impact of ground-based data assimilation to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model on parameters relevant for birch pollen emission calculations. Then, we use two different emission databases (BASE – no data assimilation, OBSNUD – data assimilation for the meteorological model) in the chemical transport model and evaluate birch pollen concentrations. Finally, we apply a scaling factor for the emissions (BASE and OBSNUD), based on the ratio between simulated and observed seasonal pollen integral (SPIn) to analyse its impact on birch concentrations over Central Europe. Assimilation of observational data significantly reduces model overestimation of air temperature, which is the main parameter responsible for the start of pollen emission and amount of released pollen. The results also show that a relatively small bias in air temperature from the model can lead to significant differences in heating degree days (HDD) value. This may cause the HDD threshold to be attained several days earlier/later than indicated from observational data which has further impact on the start of pollen emission. Even though the bias for air temperature was reduced for OBSNUD, the model indicates a start for the birch pollen season that is too early compared to observations. The start date of the season was improved at two of the 11 stations in Poland. Data assimilation does not have a significant impact on the season's end or SPIn value. The application of the SPIn factor for the emissions results in a much closer birch pollen concentration level to observations even though the factor does not improve the start or end of the pollen season. The post-processing of modelled meteorological fields, such as the application of bias correction, can be considered as a way to further improve the pollen emission modelling.

Autorzy

Małgorzata Werner
Małgorzata Werner
Daria Bilińska-Prałat
Daria Bilińska-Prałat
Maciej Kryza
Maciej Kryza
Jakub Guzikowski
Jakub Guzikowski
Małgorzata Malkiewicz
Małgorzata Malkiewicz
Piotr Rapiejko
Piotr Rapiejko
Kazimiera Chłopek
Kazimiera Chłopek
Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Zapart
Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Zapart
Agnieszka Lipiec
Agnieszka Lipiec
Dariusz Jurkiewicz
Dariusz Jurkiewicz
Ewa Kalinowska
Ewa Kalinowska
Barbara Majkowska-Wojciechowska
Barbara Majkowska-Wojciechowska
Dorota Myszkowska
Dorota Myszkowska
Małgorzata Puc
Małgorzata Puc
Anna Rapiejko
Anna Rapiejko
Grzegorz Siergiejko
Grzegorz Siergiejko
Andrzej Wieczorkiewicz
Andrzej Wieczorkiewicz
Monika Ziemianin
Monika Ziemianin
artykuł
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
Angielski
2022
807
151028
otwarte czasopismo
CC BY 4.0 Uznanie autorstwa 4.0
ostateczna wersja opublikowana
w momencie opublikowania
2022-02-10
200
9,8
0
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