Extension of WRF-Chem for birch pollen modelling—a case study for Poland

Abstrakt

In recent years, allergies due to airborne pollen allergens have shown an increasing trend, along with the severity of allergic symptoms in most industrialized countries, while synergism with other common atmospheric pollutants has also been identified as affecting the overall quality of citizenly life. In this study, we propose the state-of-the-art WRF-Chem model, which is a complex Eulerian meteorological model integrated on-line with atmospheric chemistry. We used a combination of the WRF-Chem extended towards birch pollen, and the emission module based on heating degree days, which has not been tested before. The simulations were run for the moderate season in terms of birch pollen concentrations (year 2015) and high season (year 2016) over Central Europe, which were validated against 11 observational stations located in Poland. The results show that there is a big difference in the model’s performance for the two modelled years. In general, the model overestimates birch pollen concentrations for the moderate season and highly underestimates birch pollen concentrations for the year 2016. The model was able to predict birch pollen concentrations for first allergy symptoms (above 20 pollen m−3) as well as for severe symptoms (above 90 pollen m−3) with probability of detection at 0.78 and 0.68 and success ratio at 0.75 and 0.57, respectively for the year 2015. However, the model failed to reproduce these parameters for the year 2016. The results indicate the potential role of correcting the total seasonal pollen emission in improving the model’s performance, especially for specific years in terms of pollen productivity. The application of chemical transport models such as WRF-Chem for pollen modelling provides a great opportunity for simultaneous simulations of chemical air pollution and allergic pollen with one goal, which is a step forward for studying and understanding the co-exposure of these particles in the air.

Autorzy

Małgorzata Werner
Małgorzata Werner
Jakub Guzikowski
Jakub Guzikowski
Maciej Kryza
Maciej Kryza
Małgorzata Malkiewicz
Małgorzata Malkiewicz
Daria Bilińska
Daria Bilińska
Carsten Ambelas Skjøth
Carsten Ambelas Skjøth
Piotr Rapiejko
Piotr Rapiejko
Kazimiera Chłopek
Kazimiera Chłopek
Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Zapart
Katarzyna Dąbrowska-Zapart
Agnieszka Lipiec
Agnieszka Lipiec
Dariusz Jurkiewicz
Dariusz Jurkiewicz
Ewa Kalinowska
Ewa Kalinowska
Barbara Majkowska-Wojciechowska
Barbara Majkowska-Wojciechowska
Dorota Myszkowska
Dorota Myszkowska
Małgorzata Puc
Małgorzata Puc
Anna Rapiejko
Anna Rapiejko
Grzegorz Siergiejko
Grzegorz Siergiejko
Andrzej Wieczorkiewicz
Andrzej Wieczorkiewicz
Monika Ziemianin
Monika Ziemianin
artykuł
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BIOMETEOROLOGY
Angielski
2021
65
4
513-526
otwarte czasopismo
CC BY 4.0 Uznanie autorstwa 4.0
ostateczna wersja opublikowana
w momencie opublikowania
2021-04-01
100
3,738
0
4